The North American paper market is heading into the fall with an interesting challenge. While demand patterns continue to evolve across many print segments, paper pricing and availability haven’t necessarily become easier for print buyers to navigate. 

According to the American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA), U.S. printing and writing paper shipments were 9% lower year over year in July, while inventories increased 3% from June. Major categories reported reduced shipments, although coated freesheet remained one of the stronger-performing grades with a 6% decrease. 

Shipment data remains an important metric for understanding paper market conditions and is widely referenced throughout the printing industry. However, shipments represent only one part of the picture. Capacity reductions, mill conversions, operating rates, trade policies and supply chain shifts all play a significant role in determining paper availability and pricing. 

In many industries, lower demand would normally lead to lower prices. In the paper industry, however, the story is more complicated. Capacity reductions, mill conversions, trade policies and shifting supply chains continue to reshape the market. 

Supply Is Changing 

Printing and writing paper markets continue to evolve as customer needs, media consumption habits and product mix shift over time. According to the American Forest & Paper Association, printing-writing capacity has declined over the past decade as paper producers have adjusted operations to align with changing market conditions. 

Some mills have closed, while others have converted machines to produce packaging grades instead of printing papers. In fact, AF&PA reports that U.S. printing-writing capacity fell 13.9% in 2025 alone, even as operating rates improved from 76.8% to 82.8%. 

Because production capacity has been reduced in step with changing market conditions, certain paper grades continue to operate at relatively healthy utilization rates. As a result, pricing has remained more stable than many buyers might expect. 

In short, reduced demand does not automatically translate into lower paper costs when production capacity is also being reduced. 

Tariffs Are Creating New Uncertainty 

Trade policy has become one of the biggest wild cards for the paper industry in 2026. A 25% U.S. tariff on many Brazilian goods took effect July 22. Brazil is an important supplier of certain paper products used in the North American market, and these tariffs have the potential to tighten supply and increase costs. 

At the same time, 50% U.S. tariffs on selected Canadian goods took effect Aug. 22. While the impact varies by product category, some paper and printing-related materials fall within the scope of these actions. 

Because Canada remains one of the largest suppliers of paper products to the United States, even targeted tariffs can create uncertainty throughout the supply chain. 

For print buyers, these developments highlight the importance of planning ahead and maintaining flexibility when selecting paper grades and specifications. 

Mill Conversions Continue to Reduce Printing Paper Capacity 

Another factor affecting the market is the ongoing conversion of paper machines to packaging production. One notable example is International Paper’s $250 million conversion of its Riverdale mill machine from uncoated freesheet production to containerboard production. 

Moves like this are becoming increasingly common across the industry. As packaging markets continue to expand, some manufacturers are reallocating resources toward containerboard and other packaging grades. 

International Paper also completed its $360 million acquisition of NORPAC, further supporting its packaging business and expanding production capabilities. 

These changes reinforce a longer-term industry trend: available printing paper production capacity continues to contract even as the market adjusts to changing demand patterns. That dynamic can keep certain grades relatively tight and help support prices. 

Print Buyers Are Adapting 

Print buyers continue to adjust their purchasing habits in response to economic pressures and rising costs. 

According to a PRINTING United Alliance industry survey, nearly 59% of print providers said customers are reducing print usage because of rising costs, including postage, labor and tariffs. More than half reported that customers are seeking additional guidance when planning projects. 

At the same time, buyers are shortening lead times, requesting faster turnarounds and becoming more budget conscious. 

This creates an opportunity for printers to provide strategic guidance rather than simply fulfill orders. Paper selection, format changes, page counts, quantities and distribution strategies can all influence overall project costs and return on investment. 

Postal Changes Add Another Variable 

Paper costs are only one part of the equation. USPS implemented new market-dominant prices and mailing standards on July 12, introducing several changes that can affect direct mail programs, catalogs and periodicals. 

Adjustments to Periodicals pricing, entry requirements and weight thresholds may influence decisions about format, mailing strategy and production specifications. For organizations that rely heavily on mailed communications, postal planning and paper planning increasingly need to happen together. 

What Print Buyers Should Do Next 

The biggest lesson from today’s paper market is simple: don’t assume changing demand patterns will automatically lead to lower costs or easier sourcing. 

Successful print programs in today’s environment require: 

• Planning projects earlier  

• Reviewing paper alternatives before production begins  

• Monitoring potential tariff impacts  

• Coordinating mailing and production decisions  

• Working with an experienced print partner who understands market conditions  

Factors such as page count, basis weight, quantities, format and mailing strategy can have a significant impact on the overall cost and effectiveness of a print project. As supply chains continue to evolve, proactive planning remains the best way to avoid unexpected cost increases, paper substitutions and production delays. 

Need Help Navigating Today’s Paper Market? 

If you’re evaluating an upcoming print project and want guidance on paper selection, production planning or mailing strategies, the team at Walsworth is here to help. Our print experts stay on top of market trends to help you make informed decisions and keep your projects moving forward with confidence. 

Ready to start the conversation? Get in touch with us to connect with a print specialist and discuss your next project.